You Are the Exception, Not the Rule….
Saturday, May 12th, 2012I am always amazed at how people think they completely and expertly understand the market for their particular business. In other words, they think they can jump into the “pool” with a business in which they have no prior experience and be able to swim like Michael Phelps. In reality, they still need water wings.
With many start-up companies, owners think they can gauge how much revenue they can generate for their business and are generally very flippant about their projections. Many people, when writing a business plan, will do some research, find out how big their particular industry is, determine the total value of revenues generated by all competitors, and say something like, “We conservatively estimate that our company will capture 5% of this one billion dollar market, or $50,000,000!”
The first question I ask is, “Says Who? What makes you think you are going to get anything close to 5% of the market? Are your competitors going to have some higher industry authority figure command that they give up some of their business to your company to keep things fair on the business playground? Better think twice about that statement because business, like life, is not fair!” Business plan competitions are becoming more commonplace on college campuses and in small business incubation centers across the country. I have sat in and judged several, and whenever I see a business plan that says a company is going to capture X percent of the market, they lose me. Business is a dogfight for revenue. Your competitors are not going to roll over and let some new kid on the block take away their customers unless they are fat and happy or extremely incompetent. Only the strong survive and if you don’t have a plan, or don’t execute that plan properly, get ready to eat a steady diet of Ramen noodles. Less than a year ago, I was given a business plan to read in which the person wanted to open up a funeral home in a certain area of town that also happened to be where a client of mine already had the same type of business! That was bad enough, but the business plan was the best piece of fiction that I have read in a long time. The new guy was going to perform something like 50 funerals during the first year of operations, at $10,000 per funeral average, for total first year revenue of $500,000. Yeah, right. The location was terrible, he had no prior experience in the industry, and he had just finished getting his funeral directors’ license. If it was that easy, everybody would open a funeral home. First off, he was expecting 100% of his business to come from full blown funeral packages with caskets, grave vaults, funeral services, etc. The reality is, more and more people are choosing cremation and direct disposition of the remains without all the bells and whistles, and the new average funeral costs substantially less than what he was expecting. The business plan was so far off the mark and out of touch with reality that I decided to do him a favor, so he would not sink $250,000 + into a business that had no chance of making it. I wanted to get him in front of my client, the funeral home owner in the same market, and work out a deal. The new guy could rent an office from my client and play “funeral home director” for $500 per month. He could have his own office, hang his certificate on the wall, be given a desk with a phone, and be in the business he was trying to start…the next day. The upside was, if he actually could hit those projected numbers, my guy would be more than happy to sell him the real estate, crematory, and all the things he needed to operate a funeral home, and he could retire! So it would have been a win-win for both of them, either way. Unfortunately, the new guy thought being in the funeral business was his “calling” and went ahead to another bank and was somehow able to land a loan to buy a converted house and turn it into a funeral home. After all, he had a decent credit score and the 20% cash to put down and that is all that the bank required. Banks don’t normally make loans that have zero probability of success, but every now and then you can get them to make a stupid loan, believe it or not. Just look at all the sub-prime mess and realize it still goes on to this day. After about six months, this business had only generated about five funerals, four of which were cremations. He was tracking to maybe do 10 funerals his first year, if he was lucky — a far cry from 50 full-service retail funerals at $10,000 a whack. I highly doubt the business can show a profit with only 10 funerals even if the owner doesn’t take out any salary. The point of the story is this: people start businesses all the time thinking it is a great idea, that they can do something nobody else can, and they deserve a slice of the market pie. But reality is often a different story. When I get a business plan and flip to the projections page and know, within two seconds, that it is unrealistic and not going to work, well, “It is fourth and long…time to punt!” So if you are not willing to listen to other people who have been around the block once or twice, you really have no business going into business. One of my favorite sayings is, “They don’t know what they don’t know.” If you don’t know something, the best thing you can do is go find out what questions you should be asking before you make a monstrous money-losing mistake. If you approach people in the right way, even certain competitors, but certainly business professionals who have no ulterior motive other than to keep you from making a huge and costly mistake, you will generally get some enlightenment that could save your bacon. 
My thought process was this: my client was not afraid of this new competition. He knew the new guy was not going to be taking any business away from him. If he could bring in one new funeral, all the work could be done right there and the new business, plus the rent on the office, would be a profit center to him. After six months to a year of playing “funeral director,” the new guy would see that his dream business was not very lucrative, that it was harder than it looked, and he could pack up his certificate and move out of the office. All in all, he would be out a maximum of $6,000 in office rent if he stayed an entire year, less any business he brought in that year.
























